Kenny Stills caught a long touchdown against Tampa Bay last year. Can he do it again on Sunday?
It hasn’t quite been rock bottom, but the start to this season has been pretty darn close. Despite this being the offensive preview, I still have to mention the horrible news from today. Prized free agent Jairus Byrd tore his lateral meniscus in a non-contact play yesterday and was put on injured reserve, ending his season. The free agent played just four games of his first season in black and gold, with his injury simply piling on the abundant amount of heartbreak that fans have endured through the first quarter of the season. With that being said, let’s get this preview moving in a positive direction. I’ll discuss more of what to expect in Byrd’s absence in tomorrow’s defensive preview.
The New Orleans Saints head in to their second divisional game of the season with the 3rd ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 425.8 yards per game. While their yardage is where it normally is, the scoring is not. The Saints are tied for 15th in the league scoring 23.8 points per contest. A lot of why they aren’t ranked as high as usual is turnover margin. Whether it’s the offense giving up opportunities with the ball or the defense failing to get the ball back in Drew Brees’ hand, it causes the team to make the most of the rest of their possessions. To no surprise given the way they’ve played, the Saints are tied for last in the NFL with a -5 turnover margin.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have, too, had a rough start to their season. They also sit at 1-3, but have not quite garnered the same amount of criticism as the Saints, though. Why not? It’s simple. Expectations. Coming off of a bad season in 2013, the Buccaneers fired their general manager and head coach immediately after the year ended. Out went Greg Schiano and in came Lovie Smith. Tampa Bay made a flurry of moves in free agency and drafted wide receiver Mike Evans with the #7 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Sure, with all of the moves they made, there was a lot of optimism, but not many could honestly expect the turnaround to be immediate. It became apparent that a quick turnaround was not in the cards for this season, when the Buccaneers were victim to a 56-14 shellacking at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons on national television two Thursdays ago. Impressively, they recovered from the bad loss and notched their first victory of the season last Sunday with a last second touchdown on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It’s tough to say who’s been more to blame for the 1-3 start for Tampa Bay, the offense or the defense. They are most likely both equally at fault, but the defense has suffered through a lot of injuries early on this year, which I’ll detail more in a little bit. The Buccaneer defense ranks 25th in the NFL, allowing 387.8 yards per game. Thanks in large part to their Week 3 blowout, they are second to last in scoring defense, giving up 29.8 points per game.
Pass Offense
Through the first quarter of the season, it’s safe to say that Drew Brees and the offense still aren’t in full stride. After a grind it out victory in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings, they fell flat on their face last week at Dallas. It took over three quarters for the Saints to get in to the end zone and even then it came in a fast-paced, no-huddle offense. Why it took Coach Sean Payton so long to try the no-huddle approach will forever be a mystery to us all, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about today. Still, the Saints do rank 3rd in passing offense, averaging 294.5 yards per game through the air. Brees sits 4th in the NFL in yards per game, throwing for an even 301 per contest. His seven touchdowns are tied for 8th, while he also has three interceptions and is completing 71.4% of his passes. That last number is very impressive, but can largely be attributed to the lack of down field throws New Orleans has attempted this year. Jimmy Graham has had a pretty good first quarter of the season, averaging 85 yards per game with 32 receptions and three touchdowns. Rookie Brandin Cooks has slowed down a bit from his hot start, but still sits second on the team with 23 receptions, while averaging 49.8 yards per game. He also has one touchdown reception that came back in Week 1. Marques Colston has not been as active as usual, despite catching two touchdowns so far. He has just 12 receptions and is averaging 46.3 yards per game. Pierre Thomas remains a mainstay in the passing game out of the backfield, hauling in 14 receptions for 110 yards this year. With hopes of a 2nd year leap, Kenny Stills has been relatively quiet so far, not being able to find his way down field other than once last week, which is what he was so good at last season. Lastly, Josh Hill has contributed with two touchdowns, although he has totaled just four receptions for 59 yards.
Much like the Saints, the Buccaneers came in to the season with a lot of talent in their secondary, but have struggled so far. Tampa Bay ranks 29th against the pass, allowing 272.5 yards per game through the air. They have just one interception, which came from backup outside linebacker Danny Lansanah. As a team, the Buccaneers have eight sacks this year, with Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy each having two apiece. Both players are questionable to play Sunday after practicing very lightly this week. One of their multiple free agent signings was coveted cornerback Alterraun Verner, who came over from the Tennessee Titans and intercepted five passes a year ago. Through four game this year, Verner has yet to even break up a pass. He does have 25 tackles, though, playing a key contributor against the run. Fellow starting cornerback Johnathan Banks is also without either an interception or a pass defended.
This is set to be one of the easiest match-ups the Saints offense will have all season. While the Buccaneers defense has already been struggling, Dashon Goldson has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game. Mark Barron joins fellow starters Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy on the injury report and is also questionable to play. If Johnson is out, the Tampa Bay pass rush takes a big hit. The same can be said for McCoy. Despite a decent performance from Bryce Harris, the Saints will likely have starting left tackle Terron Armstead back, after he left last week’s game with a concussion. He is probable after passing the league’s concussion protocol and practicing on a limited basis this week. All signs point to this being a good opportunity for the Saints to get some momentum on offense, heading in to the bye week.
Rush Offense
In what has been a weird start to the season, the Saints rushing attack has been pretty good. It was especially good before Mark Ingram injured his hand in the Week 2 contest at Cleveland, but Khiry Robinson has done a nice job of filling in since then. Robinson is averaging 53.8 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry, and has one touchdown on the year. Many expected to see Pierre Thomas receive a few more carries in wake of Ingram’s injury, but that really hasn’t been the case. New Orleans has continued to use him primarily in the passing game, giving him just two carries last week in Dallas. This should be the last week without Ingram, as the team believes he will return following next week’s bye week.
Through a lot of bad play this season, Tampa Bay’s run defense has been the best aspect of their team. They come in to this week ranked 18th in the league, allowing 115.3 yards per game on the ground. Outside linebacker Lavonte David leads the team with 38 tackles, eight of those being for a loss. He’s also forced two of Tampa Bay’s five forced fumbles, which has them tied for first in the league in that category. Strong safety Mark Barron follows behind David with 29 tackles, but as I mentioned is questionable to play with an abdomen injury. Middle linebacker Mason Foster is usually an active player in the Buccaneers run defense, but he’s missed the past two games with a shoulder injury and is also questionable for the game.
Taking in to account how banged up the Tampa Bay defense is, New Orleans shouldn’t have a problem continuing their moderate success running the ball. If all goes to plan, the passing attack will be firing on all cylinders, which would open up even more holes for Khiry Robinson to run through. Whether it’s in the passing game or running game, keep an eye out for Travaris Cadet, who saw more snaps than usual last week, though he only received one carry.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
If I put him here enough, he’ll eventually play a game where he’s unstoppable, right? I truly believe this could be the one. He’s facing a struggling, injured Buccaneers defense and he’s likely taking this 1-3 start as tough as anyone on the team. He prepares better than anyone in the NFL and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll be ready to do his part to get this team back on track.
Pierre Thomas
Thomas has been very quiet so far this year. Fewer carries was expected coming in to the season, given the Saints hopes of keeping him fresh and filling in for the Darren Sproles role. The Saints know that Thomas is a big asset to what they want to do, so I’m looking for them to get him back involved with this favorable match-up. Whether it’s with more carries or more designed passes thrown his way, look for Thomas to get back in the groove.
Brandin Cooks
After a phenomenal debut at Atlanta (7 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD), Cooks has been fairly quiet. The Saints have not used him in the running game like they did in the first two weeks, even though he only got one carry in each game. Being back home on the fast turf, this could be a good opportunity to get the ball to the rookie and let him go to work.
Prediction
I alluded to rock bottom in my opening paragraph earlier. Like I said, things have been bad, but they haven’t reached that status. If the Saints somehow found a way to lose this game, it may be a different story, though. With that being said, I’m about 95% sure that won’t happen. Yes, Tampa Bay has come in to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and pulled off an upset before, but I just can’t see this team losing this game in this situation.
Saints – 31
Buccaneers – 20
Who Dat?!
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