Look for Jimmy Graham to return to form against his favorite opponent.
Happy Thursday, folks! We are on a short week, because the Saints play tonight! We are going to go ahead and consolidate this week’s previews in to one article for the convenience of everyone. Let’s jump right in.
The 8-2 New Orleans Saints travel to Atlanta to face the 2-8 rival Falcons in the second match-up between the two teams this season. The Saints beat the Falcons in the season opener in the Mercedes Benz Superdome 23-17. As I’m sure many remember, the game came down to the final seconds with a goal line stand from Rob Ryan’s new defense. Looking back, it doesn’t seem surprising that New Orleans won the game on the heels of a great game from the defensive unit, but at the time, it was exactly what everyone associated with the black and gold needed to see coming off of a tough 2012 campaign. The Falcons lead the overall series 47-42, but it’s no secret as to how dominant the Saints have been against their bitter rivals in the past seven years. Coach Sean Payton has owned the Falcons, boasting an 11-2 record against the dirty birds. Still, this match-up has the potential to be a great game no matter what the records are.
The New Orleans Saints come in to Week 12 off of a huge comeback victory against the San Francisco 49ers. While gaining nearly 400 yards of offense against them, the Saints defense held Colin Kaepernick and their potent rushing attack to just 196 yards. The two units continued to play great complimentary football, with the defense holding strong for most of the day. The Saints offense comes in to this week ranked 2nd in the league with an average of 419.1 yards per game. Not surprising, right? Well, here’s one better. The Saints defense comes in to Week 12 with the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. They are allowing 305.4 yards per game, while keeping opponents to just 18.3 per game (5th best). Through their ten games, they’ve allowed 20 or more points only three times, with last week being the first time any opponent has scored more than 17 in the Superdome.
On the flip side, the Atlanta Falcons come in to Week 12 limping badly with what has been a very tough season. The usual high flying offense of the Falcons has struggled mightily, with injuries to their main weapons. Roddy White has missed multiple games this season with ankle and hamstring injuries, Julio Jones was lost for the year early in the season due to a foot injury, Steven Jackson missed multiple games with a hamstring problem, and now Tony Gonzales is banged up with a toe injury. After a season in the top five in total offense, they are currently ranked 14th in the NFL with 347.5 yards per game. On the defensive side, it’s been even worse. They’ve allowed 381.9 yards per contest, 26th in the league.
Pass Offense
The Saints head to Atlanta with their usual consistency in the passing game. They remain 2nd in the NFL with 321.9 yards per game, despite what’s been a fairly quiet year from Marques Colston. The wide-receiver caught a touchdown in Week 1 against the Falcons, but was held out of the end zone until two weeks ago against Dallas. The 7 catch 107 yard performance was his first and only game of the season with over 100 yards receiving and came on the heels of three straight games with less than 20 yards. His re-emergence has been crucial for Drew Brees, with teams keying even more in on slowing down a hobbled Jimmy Graham. Brees’ 3,369 yards passing have him on pace for yet another 5,000 yard season, trailing only Peyton Manning for the year. Since injuring himself against the Patriots in Week 6, Graham is averaging only 63 yards per game, although he has scored 4 touchdowns through that span. He has seen more and more snaps, though, seemingly getting healthier in the past few weeks. The pass protection has been much better for Brees as of late, following a very tough outing against the Jets a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, though, Jahri Evans injured his ankle against the 49ers last week and looks to be in danger of missing tonight’s game, despite his questionable tag. The Saints could also be without one of their best weapons out of the backfield in Darren Sproles, who also injured his ankle last week and has not been able to practice during the short week. He, too, is listed as questionable and will see how things go in warm-ups.
Atlanta’s pass defense, at 22nd in the NFL, is surprisingly their better part of their unit. They’ve allowed 249.2 yards per game, while struggling to get constant pressure on the quarterback. Their 21 sacks for the season rank 26th. They sacked Brees twice and intercepted him once in the first match-up between these two, but also allowed him to throw for 357 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie Robert Alford, from Southeastern Louisiana University, picked off Brees in the first meeting and is the team’s nickel corner-back behind veteran Asante Samuel and fellow rookie Desmond Trufant. Alford’s two interceptions are most on the team.
There’s not much reason to believe that Brees won’t continue to have the success that he normally does against Atlanta. Missing Sean Payton in 2012’s game between these two teams in Atlanta, Brees through five interceptions in what was one of his worst games as a Saint. I truly believe that game was a result of the quarterback trying to put his entire team on his back in a must-win situation, when missing his head coach. While Falcon fans may be hoping for the same result, don’t bet on it. Brees will likely continue to utilize Marques Colston and you can also expect Jimmy Graham to have a nice night. I’ve noted how Graham usually destroys the Falcons, so with another few days of healing, tonight would be a good night for him to get back to dominant form. Keep an eye on rookie guard Tim Lelito, who’d fill in for Jahri Evans if he were to sit out.
Rush Offense
After weeks of not being able to say much about the running game, the Saints have finally showed a good bit of improvement. After running for 242 yards against Dallas two weeks ago, New Orleans followed it up with a quiet, but efficient game against the 49ers, producing 4.0 yards per carry. They have creeped up a bit in the ranks, but still sit at 23rd in the NFL with 97.2 yards per game.
We’ve talked about how much Atlanta’s pass defense has struggled, but their rush defense has been even worse. They’ve allowed the 3rd most yards per game on the ground, surrendering 132.7 per contest. The Falcons are coming off of a game in which they allowed 163 yards rushing to Tampa Bay’s Bobby Rainey, who is now playing on his third team in 2013. When it rains, it pours, right?
With such a favorable match-up, look for the Saints to try and continue to build upon their recent success in the running game. Brees should have no problem moving the ball through the air, which will soften up the Falcons run defense even more. I can tell you this, Atlanta certainly didn’t spend their three days of preparation in the short week for the New Orleans rushing attack. If the game gets out of hand, you can certainly expect a large dose of Mark Ingram in the 2nd half, much like you saw in the Dallas game. Ingram has looked fantastic since returning from his toe injury and I’m sure the Saints want to continue to grow his confidence.
Pass Defense
The most surprising part of the Saints’ defensive turnaround has been the pass defense. After allowing what seemed to be 350 yards passing every single week in 2012, they rank 3rd in the league in 2013, giving up just 191.4 yards through the air per game. Keenan Lewis has been a fantastic addition to the secondary, still leading the team with three of the team’s ten interceptions. The secondary did take a big hit last week, though. Veteran Jabari Greer suffered a gruesome knee injury after landing awkwardly in pass coverage. Greer was not having his best year, but something like that is not what you’d like to see happen to anyone, much less a player with the character of Greer’s, who’s given so much in his time in New Orleans. The Saints remain top-10 in sacks, with 32 on the season. Cameron Jordan continues to lead the way seven sacks of his own, followed closely by Junior Galette with six.
Despite missing so many of their weapons through most of the year, Atlanta has managed to stay 6th in the NFL in passing yards per game with 274.4. Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter runs a pass happy, vertical style offense, so they continue to air it out. The fact that they’re 2-8 and trailing in most of their games also plays a key role in having to continuously throw the ball, but Matt Ryan is doing all that he can with what he has. Harry Douglas has filled in nicely for both Roddy White and Julio Jones, leading the team in receiving with 754 yards. His 51 receptions and 2 touchdowns are second on the team, both behind Tony Gonzales. The veteran tight-end looked to be headed for retirement, but decided to give it one last go after losing in the NFC Championship Game. His 54 receptions for 568 yards and 4 touchdowns are much lower than the numbers he’s provided since being traded to Atlanta in 2009. Despite nursing a toe injury, he should be able to play tonight after getting back to practice in limited fashion yesterday.
Ryan was able to crack 300 yards passing in the first contest, but that was with his full arsenal of weapons. Roddy White was hobbled with an ankle sprain back in Week 1, but Atlanta was at their very healthiest at the time. It may not be as easy for Ryan to have success throwing as he usually does in this match-up this week, though, with the Saints pass defense playing at the top of their game. Jordan and Galette seem to get better every week, while Akiem Hicks and David Hawthorne have slowly emerged as pass rush threats. Julio Jones was always the big down-field threat that New Orleans had to worry about, but his absence could spell for more blitzes from Rob Ryan. Look for the Saints to try to continue getting to the quarterback early with the attempt to keep the Falcons from finding any sort of groove.
Rush Defense
While the rushing offense has been much improved over the last few weeks, the rushing defense looked phenomenal in a tough match-up against San Francisco. Now cracking the top-20, they rank 17th in the NFL, allowing 114 yards on the ground per game. Despite ranking dead last in yards allowed per carry, the Saints held the 49ers to just 81 yards rushing last week. Of that, 25 yards were on scrambles from Kaepernick, trying to pick whatever he could with no one open. On designed running plays, New Orleans held them to 2.9 yards per carry and only allowed Frank Gore to pick up 48 yards, half of which came on just one play.
Atlanta signed free agent Steven Jackson this off-season and had very high hopes coming in to the year. Many believed that if a plodder like Michael Turner could muster up 1,000 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns in their offense, Jackson would have a field day. Unfortunately for them, he was injured in Week 2 and missed multiple games. He’s struggled for most of the year, with his best game coming against the Saints. He finished with 77 yards on 11 carries in that game, but 50 of them came on just one run. As I always say, it certainly counts, but if you watched the game live, you likely remember that New Orleans did a great job bottling him up, aside from the one big run.
Look for the Falcons to try and get Jackson going again tonight. As most teams do, Atlanta will try and control the ball and the clock to keep Drew Brees off of the field. Jackson has a poor yards per carry average of 3.3, so New Orleans would certainly love to keep tonight closer to that number, rather than their 4.9 YPC average for the entire year. The absence of deep threat Julio Jones not only allows the Saints to blitz more, but it also allows Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper to play closer to the line of scrimmage to come down and help out in the run. They both returned to action last week, but were fairly quiet with the front-seven doing most of the work against the run.
Players to Watch
Mark Ingram
Tonight is the perfect opportunity for Ingram to try and build on his recent success. Although it can be said for most players, he really seems to thrive when he gets some confidence. He always seems to believe that he was close to busting the run for a huge game and with the way he’s been playing, he may just do that tonight. Atlanta is very suspect in run defense, so while the Saints know exactly what they will get from Pierre Thomas, look for them to give Ingram a good serving of carries if/when they build a lead.
Jimmy Graham
Although Graham can beat just about anyone, he has made a living against the Falcons early in his career. It always seems to be a “whatever you can do, I can do better” battle between he and Tony Gonzales, but Graham is steadily improving in his career, while Gonzales’ nears the end. As I mentioned before, look for Graham to break out of the quiet (for him) slump he’s been in and be a big target for Brees.
David Hawthorne
I strongly urge anyone who has the opportunity to re-watch last week’s game against San Francisco to do so and pay attention to #57. Hawthorne again played a fantastic game, just part of what’s been a very good season for him. He made play after play on Frank Gore and the running backs, often getting to the ball carrier in the backfield. Look for him to be a key part of slowing down Steven Jackson
Roman Harper
After getting his feet wet in his first game back since Week 2, Harper should be prepared to get back to his normal style of play against Atlanta tonight. With Malcolm Jenkins available to protect the middle of the field, look for Harper to get down close to the line of scrimmage and make plays in the backfield like we’ve seen him do plenty of times before.
Honorable Mention: Kenny Vaccaro
It remains to be seen if Vaccaro will play tonight after suffering a concussion two weeks ago against Dallas. He’s been limited this week, but if he does play, he’ll likely be in coverage on Tony Gonzales for a good part of the night. He made the play of the day in the closing moments of the Week 1 victory over Atlanta, swiping down Gonzales’ arms before he could get a grasp on the potential game-winning touchdown for the Falcons.
Prediction
Heading in to the game tonight, I’m trying to do my best to throw out the records. This match-up can provide a close game any time the two teams get together and that has to be acknowledged. The stats show that Atlanta is as bad as their record shows, but they would love nothing more than to get in the Saints’ way of their good season. I don’t believe that the Saints will have any trouble, but don’t be surprised if the Falcons hang in for most or all of the game. My guess is that Atlanta uses the early momentum of the crowd and hope to get a score or two in the first half, but I see New Orleans slowly pulling away around the late 3rd/early 4th quarter.
Saints – 31
Falcons – 17
Who Dat?!
