Tonight’s matchup features two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Which will lead his team to a big win?

That time of year has come for the 2-4 New Orleans Saints. No, it’s not the cool weather. It’s the tough part of their schedule. Starting with Detroit last week, the Saints are entering a stretch that includes Green Bay, Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. It’s safe to say that this is not quite where Coach Sean Payton wanted his team to be as they head in to the gauntlet, but there is nothing they can do to change that now. Thankfully, the Carolina Panthers are only a game ahead in the NFC South, so even with a loss, the two teams could be playing for first place when they get together on Thursday night. The last time the Saints played the Green Bay Packers was in 2012. The Packers won 28-27 after, get this, coming from behind in the 4th quarter. The last time Sean Payton has faced the Packers was in 2011 in the Thursday night season opener, when Green Bay held off a late comeback effort and defeated New Orleans 42-34. If you are looking for the last time that the Saints beat the Packers, look to 2008, when they did it by the score of 51-29 on Monday Night Football.

The Saints come in to Week 8 with each side of the ball at opposite ends of the spectrum. On offense, the team ranks 2nd with 437 yards per game and 9th in scoring, putting up 25.8 points per game. As for the defense, they are allowing 373.7 yards per game, which is 21st in the league. They are ranked 28th in scoring defense, giving up 27.5 points per contest. It makes sense that the defense is ranked lower in points allowed than yards allowed, given the 11 turnovers they have, which in many times have either directly led to touchdowns from the opponents or setting up great field position for the opposing offense. New Orleans is tied for 29th with a -7 turnover differential.

You won’t hear the 5-2 Green Bay Packers complaining about their start to the season, but even they could admit it’s been a little weird. They’ve won four straight since starting 1-2, listening to the advice of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to R-E-L-A-X. I say that it’s been a weird start, because although they are 4th in the NFL with an average of 28.7 points per game, they are ranked 25th in total offense, gaining just 325.4 yards per game. The defense ranks 19th, giving up 362.7 yards per game, which means on a per game basis, they are actually being out-gained. The difference, though, is the defense is allowing just 21.0 points per game, which is tied for 9th in the league. Green Bay sits atop the entire NFL in turnover differential at +10, having given the ball away just four times. Even one of those almost doesn’t count, as it came from backup quarterback Matt Flynn in mop-up duty. 

Pass Offense

It’s been a typical year in many ways for the Saints passing offense, which ranks 2nd in the league with an average of 314.0 yards per game through the air. Drew Brees is also 2nd in the league in passing yards per game at 319. What hasn’t been the same is his touchdowns and interceptions. He only has 11 touchdowns through the first six games this year and has yet to throw for more than two in one game. His seven interceptions are alarming, especially considering the timing that he’s thrown them. Jimmy Graham got off to a hot start, but has since slowed down thanks to a shoulder injury. Still, he’s tied for the team high in receptions with 34 and leads the team in receiving yards with 62.7 per game and three receiving touchdowns. Graham played 30 snaps in last week’s game, but did not catch one pass. He was limited in practice all week, but looks likely to play tonight. Brandin Cooks is tied with Graham for the team high with 34 receptions, while also averaging 46.3 yards per game and sitting with his one touchdown reception that came in Week 1. Marques Colston has 21 receptions on the year, one touchdown, and is averaging 59.8 yards per game. We finally saw the Kenny Stills that we came to know last season against Detroit last week, as he hauled in 5 receptions for 103 yards and a long touchdown, putting him right at the 20 yards per catch mark that he led the NFL with in 2013. Look for Travaris Cadet to play a much bigger role in the passing offense today, because Pierre Thomas will miss the next few games with a shoulder injury. Cadet has 16 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown so far this season.

The Green Bay Packers have been very good against the pass so far this year. They rank 5th, allowing just 214.9 yards per game through the air. They may be a little short-handed tonight, though, as strong safety Morgan Burnett and cornerback Sam Shields may not be able to play. Burnett is questionable with a calf injury that kept him out of practice all week, while Shields is doubtful after nursing a knee injury. Fellow starting cornerback Tramon Williams leads the team with seven pass breakups, while also recording an interception. On a team with pass rushers such as Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, and Nick Perry, you’d think they’d rank higher than tied for 14th in sacks, but that’s where they stand with 16 sacks this season. Peppers and Perry are tied for the team lead with three a piece, while Matthews only has one and a half this season. Don’t let the numbers fool you, because the Saints offensive line will surely need to bring their A-game against prominent pass rushers such as those guys, because they can get going and wreak havoc at any given time.

Rush Offense

Just a few weeks removed from a cast on his hand, Mark Ingram is set to carry the load for the Saints rushing attack in tonight’s game. With both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson out, Ingram will be the only running back on the active roster who has more than three carries. Brandin Cooks actually has the second most carries of any player that will suit up tonight. Ingram will lead the NFL’s 13th best rushing attack, who has been averaging 123.0 yards per game on the ground. Ingram has totaled 159 yards rushing in the three games he has played, averaging a very nice 4.7 yards per carry. He scored all three of his touchdowns in the first two games of the season. The Saints signed Edwin Baker to the active roster off of their practice squad, who was brought along following Ingram’s hand injury in Week 2.

As good as the Packers have been in many of their aspects, they have been downright pitiful against the run. Allowing 147.9 yards per game on the ground, Green Bay ranks second to last in the NFL. Aforementioned Morgan Burnett leads the team with 58 tackles, so if he cannot play tonight, the Packers would be without their biggest player in run support. If Burnett can’t go, look for rookie Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to see extended playing time. He has done a nice job when he has seen the field, totaling 35 tackles, a sack, an interception, and three pass breakups. Inside linebacker AJ Hawk is second on the team with 52 tackles. With this unit struggling as much as they have, you can expect the Saints to try and attack them with Mark Ingram. Not only is it a good match-up, but it will allow them to do what so many teams game-plan to do against New Orleans and that’s keeping the opposing quarterback off of the field.

Pass Defense

The Saints pass defense played great for 56 minutes last week, then one play in which they fell asleep changed everything. They had held Matthew Stafford to just above 200 yards passing until the 3rd and 14 with just under four minutes to go, which turned in to a 77 yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate. I will refrain from getting too much in to that play, because it will only get me frustrated. UGH, COREY WHITE! Sorry, back to this week’s game. Well, speaking of White, he’s tied for 3rd on the team with 29 tackles, while also recording a sack, one pass breakup, and more spotty coverage. The kid clearly has the physical tools, but he has yet to be able to put it all together and become a good cornerback. He’ll continue to see significant playing time, though, as the Saints don’t have any better options. Top cornerback Keenan Lewis has been limited in practice all week with a knee injury and is questionable to play tonight, although I can’t imagine he’ll miss a contest as big as this one. Fellow cornerback Patrick Robinson is probable with a hamstring injury that has held him back after practicing in full all week. The pass rush continues to be non-existent, especially on third downs when they need it the most. After a top-5 season in sacks in 2013, New Orleans is tied for 25th with only nine this year. Junior Galette leads the team with four of those, while no other player on the roster has more than one. That includes last year’s team leader with 12.5 sacks, Cam Jordan. Jordan is not just simply having a bad year, but he’s costing himself money. Many were surprised to see the Saints extend Junior Galette first, but now it appears as if it was the right move. Jordan still has another year left on his rookie contract with his fifth year option being picked up for 2015, but it’s clear he needs to pull it together and help this 28th ranked pass defense out.

Other than Peyton Manning, there may not be a quarterback playing any hotter than Aaron Rodgers. His yardage may not suggest that is the case, but his quarterback rating and touchdown to interception ratio certainly does. His 239.0 yards per game is 21st in the NFL, but his passer rating of 117.3 is second best and that is thanks to throwing 18 touchdowns and just one interception. That one interception came all the way back in Week 1 at Seattle. I mentioned that Brees has yet to throw for three touchdowns in a single game this year, well, Rodgers has thrown for at least three in his last four games and has done it in five of his seven games this season. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have combined for 14 of those 18 touchdown passes, producing as very dangerous threats on each side of the field. Nelson is tied for 5th in the league with 47 receptions, has six touchdowns, and is averaging 101.7 yards per game, which is 3rd best in the NFL. Cobb has reeled in 35 passes, while averaging 64.6 yards per game, and has caught eight touchdowns, which is 3rd most in the league. Rookie receiver Davante Adams and tight end Andrew Quarless split Rodgers’ other four touchdowns, both providing nice targets when teams try to take Nelson and Cobb away as options. Don’t let the numbers fool you, though, this passing attack is much better than their 20th ranking and 226.7 yards per game average shows.

Rush Defense

Surprisingly, the Saints have been pretty effective against the run, especially as of late. In their past two games, New Orleans has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry to Tampa Bay and Detroit. They rank 11th in the league, allowing 103.2 yards per game on the ground. As usual, inside linebacker Curtis Lofton leads the team with 56 tackles and four tackles for loss. Fellow inside linebacker David Hawthorne is second on the team, despite missing two games, totaling 30 tackles and three tackles for loss. Kenny Vaccaro continues to be a contributor from his safety position against the run, tying with Corey White for third on the team with 29 tackles.

Eddie Lacy has been far from the offensive rookie of the year that we saw in 2013. Lacy, averaging just 52.7 yards per game, has now found himself sharing carries with James Starks. Starks has added 188 yards rushing this year, but is putting up a nice 4.5 yards per carry average. Lacy still leads the team with four rushing touchdowns, but his play has been a far cry from his breakout performance a year ago. As a team, Green Bay ranks 23rd in the NFL, averaging 98.7 yards per game.

Players to Watch

Offense

Drew Brees

Brees admitted in last week’s post-game press conference that he felt as if he costed his team the game with his late interception, giving Detroit the ball in the red-zone for the eventual game-winning touchdown. He has played poorly all year, which has been alarming for Saints fans. We all know that Brees is on the downside of his career, but it’s hard to believe that this is the beginning of the end and instead it’s just been a tough start. I’d still lean to the latter, but he has to pull it together quickly. I’m watching to see if he will finally throw for three touchdowns in a game, while attempting to complete only his second game of the season without an interception.

Mark Ingram

This will be Ingram’s biggest opportunity since coming in to the NFL. With both Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas out, he appears primed to shoulder the load in the running game. His career high for carries in a single game is 21, which I believe he will surpass. Not to look to far ahead, but I truly believe his performance tonight could go a long way in whether or not the Saints decide to bring him back next season. At home facing the second to worst run defense in the NFL, this is as good of an chance to display his ability to be a lead running back as he’ll get.

Defense

Junior Galette

Green Bay has allowed 17 sacks this season, which is tied for 9th most in the league. Galette will need to take advantage of that and get to Rodgers, because this is one of he last quarterbacks in the NFL that you want to give loads of time to pass to. He will absolutely shred this defense if he has all day to throw. It’s apparent that Galette is not going to get much help in the pass rush, so it could be up to him to cause issues for the Packers offensive line.

Cornerback #2

I’m assuming the Saints will continue to play Corey White on the outside in two cornerback sets, while shifting him inside in the nickel formation and putting Patrick Robinson on the outside as the third corner. Regardless of how Rob Ryan lines them up, whoever is in that #2 cornerback spot will be the matchup to watch. Keenan Lewis will most likely have his hands full with Jordy Nelson for most of the game, leaving the very speedy and dangerous Randall Cobb as a matchup nightmare for the Saints. I’m expecting at least one of these receivers to have a huge game tonight, if not both, with the one seeing the #2 coverage getting plenty of targets from Rodgers.

Prediction

This one hurts, but it’s hard to pick the team that has struggled to get leads this season, then when they have, they’ve blown them. The Saints have given away plenty of opportunities to beat inferior teams and are now welcoming arguably the best team in the NFC. I believe the atmosphere of the Superdome can keep this one close, but I see the Packers coming out on top.

Packers – 30

Saints – 27

Here’s to me being wrong, so Who Dat?!

Follow David Billiot Jr on Twitter @DCBilliotJr6