Rafael Bush will have all eyes on him as he fills in at safety in the wake of Jairus Byrd’s season ending injury.
The hits just keep coming. I briefly discussed it yesterday, but as you all know by now, Jairus Byrd is out for the year. The high-priced free safety tore his lateral meniscus on Thursday and was put on injured reserve on Friday, ending his season. You’ve heard the term “adding insult to injury” before, well, this is sort of the other way around. Injury to insult. The New Orleans Saints were already coming off of a 38-17 throttling at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys on national television last Sunday night, then Byrd goes down. I know, I’ve started this preview with some negativity. The reason? Because I’d like to get it out of the way, so we can then move forward and try to stop looking at the past. With that being said, it’s been a rough start, but three quarters of the season still remain and the Saints are only a game out of first place in the division. Not to mention, both Atlanta and Carolina are dealing with a slew of injuries on their side, as well. Keep faith, Who Dat Nation, this is far from over.
New Orleans comes in to Week 5 with the 29th ranked defense in the NFL, allowing 396 yards per game. They are tied for 27th in scoring defense, giving up 27.5 points per contest. The performance from this unit has been a far cry from what we saw last season. There has been little to no pressure on the quarterback, poor tackling, and blown assignments in coverage. It’s tough to blame Rob Ryan or any single player as the reason for the decline, as everyone is collectively to blame. Can they turn it around? Sure. I don’t see them getting back inside the top-5, or even top-10 for that matter, but there’s no reason to believe that a home game against a struggling offense followed by a bye week doesn’t present at least some opportunity to get better for the rest of the season. Honestly, they don’t have any other option then to pull it together. Starting 1-3 and now losing one of the best three players on the defense has the Saints with their back against the wall, so to make anything of this season, things must change and they must change fast.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a nightmare first three games of the season on offense, but finally got things going last week in their win at Pittsburgh. Free agent signing Josh McCown was struggling to do much of anything, then injured his hand in the team’s Week 3 blowout loss at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. Mike Glennon has since taken his place and started for the Buccaneers last week, invigorating their passing attack and leading them to a come from behind victory. Despite the good performance, Tampa Bay enters Week 5 with the 30th ranked offense, gaining just 290.8 yards per game. They’re 29th in scoring, putting up 18.0 points per contest. It wouldn’t be fair to expect a drastic climb in the ranks with Glennon under center, but this offense is almost definitely better than what those numbers suggest with him in the game.
Pass Defense
Continuing to look back at what has been a baffling drop off for this defense, it’s the pass defense that is mostly to blame. Yes, DeMarco Murray just ran all over the Saints, but this pass defense has looked completely lost for most of this season. This aspect also deserves much of the blame, because it was what was so good for New Orleans a year ago. They were top-5 in both pass defense and sacks. This year, the Saints rank 28th against the pass, allowing 272.5 yards per game through the air. They’re tied for 23rd with just five sacks on the season, which is barely over one a game. In 2013, New Orleans averaged over three per game. Alright, I know I said let’s look to the future, so I’ll move on. With the injury to Jairus Byrd, it’s obvious that there’s a big hole to fill. Thankfully, the Saints have Rafael Bush to fill in, who’s a very good third safety. Bush played extensive minutes last season alongside Malcolm Jenkins while Roman Harper missed multiple games, so he has a lot of experience in this defense. Sure, he’s no Jairus Byrd, but it certainly be worse. The bottom line for this unit is generating some pass rush. You’ve heard me say it before and I’ll say it plenty more times, but it all starts up front. If the front four can pressure the quarterback, it would help out their secondary tremendously. Both Corey White and Brian Dixon shared time at the #2 cornerback position last week, each giving up a touchdown to Terrance Williams. Dixon, though, was actually in pretty good position on the score he allowed, but he did not turn his head around to make a play on the ball.
By default, Tampa Bay may have found their starting quarterback for the rest of the season if Mike Glennon can play like he did last week. It was somewhat of a surprise when the Buccaneers signed Josh McCown in free agency and immediately named him their starting quarterback, because Glennon played pretty decent as a rookie behind Josh Freeman in what was a disaster of a year for Tampa Bay last season. But, as you see very often with new coaching staffs and general managers, some teams choose not to stick with a player that was drafted by the old regime. Well, now McCown has an injured hand and Glennon has already led his team to their first victory. It wasn’t necessarily an efficient game for him, but Glennon completed 21 of 42 passes for 302 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception. Despite his solid output, Tampa Bay still ranks dead last in passing offense with 194.3 yards per game, which shows just how bad it was in the first three weeks. Glennon will be without one of his top targets, as rookie Mike Evans is expected to miss the next few games with a groin injury sustained last week. Louis Murphy stepped in to his spot and caught six passes for 99 yards and was targeted by Glennon 11 times. Vincent Jackson is always a threat when playing the Buccaneers, but he’s had a slow start to the season, averaging just three receptions for 33.5 yards per game, while totaling two touchdowns. Keep an eye out for tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins if he plays. The rookie tight end from Washington is 6’5″, 262 pounds, but has been hampered by an ankle injury and is questionable to play.
This appears to be one of the easiest match-ups that the pass defense will see this year. Though the future with Glennon, Evans, and Seferian-Jenkins could be bright for Tampa Bay, they just aren’t there yet. Keenan Lewis always does a fine job of keeping the opposing #1 receiver in check, so that leaves little to be afraid of for the rest of the defense. That, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt, considering how bad the Saints have been covering #2 receivers. My big question is when will we Stanley Jean-Baptiste. The rookie cornerback that the Saints took in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft has been a healthy inactive for all four games this season. It was clear that he’d be a project and it was his physical tools that had him rated high enough to be selected in the 2nd round, but how much worse could it get? I’d love to see New Orleans have him dress out and start getting some snaps, because the play from guys in front of him has been underwhelming to say the least. He struggled in the preseason, but now could be the time to start getting him some experience. Also, with Rafael Bush sliding in to the starting free safety position, there will be more reps at the nickel and dime positions.
Run Defense
The run defense is coming off of their worst performance of the year. DeMarco Murray destroyed this unit last week on his way to 149 yards rushing, two touchdowns, and a 6.2 yards per carry average. Before that, they really hadn’t been that bad, though. Not as bad as the pass defense, at least. New Orleans is now allowing 123.5 yards per game on the ground, 21st in the league. As he typically is, Curtis Lofton is leading the team in tackles with 35. Kenny Vaccaro and the now injured Jairus Byrd are tied for 2nd with 22 apiece. Although the entire team has struggled with missed tackles, Vaccaro has seemed to have the most. He has more than tripled his 2013 total of three, through just four games this season. It appears as if inside linebacker David Hawthorne is set to return after missing the past two games with an ankle injury, which should help the run defense. Another player that has been surprisingly inactive is John Jenkins. Jenkins played very well in his rookie season, but has been in street clothes for three of the first four games this season.
As big of a mess as the Saints run defense was last week, the Buccaneers rushing attack has been equally bad through their first four games. They’re ranked 24th in the NFL, but that’s with an average of just 96.5 yards per game. Lead running back Doug Martin has struggled through an injury to start the year, missing both Week 2 and 3. In the two games he has played, he’s totaled just 49 yards on 23 carries, to go along with one rushing touchdown. Bobby Rainey was the primary ball carrier behind Martin and has 41 carries for 199 yards so far this season. With Martin off the injury report heading in to this week’s game, Rainey will likely see most of his work on 3rd downs and presents a nice target out of the backfield. He has 13 receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown through the air.
I was on record of stating that whichever side won the battle between the Saints run defense and DeMarco Murray would decide the game last week. It became the truth, as all you really needed to look at was the final score and Murray’s stat line. I don’t believe that Martin or Rainey present the same kind of game-changing threat like that, but they can certainly help keep Tampa Bay in the game. Ball control is one of the most important factors for teams playing the Saints, so any time an opponent can have success on the ground, New Orleans is in for a fight. When a team comes in to the Superdome and can’t run the ball to sustain drives, Drew Brees sees more opportunities and that spells trouble. I believe that this entire offense will have to click for the Buccaneers to have enough pop to win this game, but like I said, the rushing attack can help keep it close.
Players to Watch
Cam Jordan
It’s got to happen at some point, right? He’s too good to stay completely quiet for such a long period of time. The same can be said about Junior Galette, but he at least has two sacks. Jordan needs to step up his game, both with his pass rush and his ability to help in the run defense, which has always been a quiet strength of his game.
Rafael Bush
This one is obvious. Bush will be making his first start of the season in a role that is now his own for the rest of the year. He played pretty well last season, so let’s see if his knowledge of this scheme can help produce some big plays for a defense that’s forced only one turnover.
The nickel and dime positions
When Patrick Robinson was benched in favor of Corey White, Bush moved in to the nickel position with White going to the outside. Now that Bush will be the full time safety, whoever now plays the inside cornerback positions will be a player to watch. Based on recent usage, I’d guess that Brian Dixon plays in the nickel and Robinson in the dime. As I mentioned earlier, it may not be long before Stanley Jean-Baptiste is activated, but that remains to be seen. Keep an eye out for the first three cornerback set today to see who Rob Ryan goes with.
Prediction
Saints – 31
Buccaneers – 20
Who Dat?!
Follow David Billiot Jr on Twitter @DCBilliotJr6
