Week 3 Preview: Saints Offense vs. Vikings Defense

On to Week 3. After two heart-breaking losses to open the season, the 0-2 New Orleans Saints are heading home for their first regular season game of the 2014 season in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. They opened the season on the road at Atlanta, then at Cleveland, losing both games on last second field goals. While offense was not to blame in Week 1, they didn’t look quite as good last week. Still, though, the Saints come in to the third week of the season ranked 3rd in the NFL in total offense, gaining an average of 434.5 yards through their first two games. Despite being 0-2, they come in as the 2nd best team in terms of scoring offense, averaging 29 points per game in the losses. How are they win-less, you ask? Key turnovers and defense is your answer. We’ll talk more about the latter in the next preview, but today we’ll discuss why the Saints have to cut down on the giveaways.

The Minnesota Vikings will be traveling to New Orleans coming off of a dismal performance in their home opener last week, losing to the New England Patriots by the score of 30-7. The Vikings are 1-1, winning their season opener on the road against the St. Louis Rams. Minnesota’s defense has played pretty well, while it’s been their offense that has struggled. They rank 7th in the league in total defense, giving up 305 yards per game. They are also top-10 in scoring defense, sitting tied for 8th, allowing 18 points per game. Minnesota has a lot of young talent on their defensive unit, which is made up of five former 1st round picks. All of them were drafted by Minnesota, with four of them (Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Shariff Floyd, and Anthony Barr) all coming from the past three NFL drafts. Chad Greenway is the fifth former 1st round pick, coming from the 2006 draft class.

The Saints and Vikings are fairly familiar with each other during the Sean Payton era. Coach Payton has faced off with Minnesota four times, with one of them being the second most important game he’s ever coached in his life. As you can recall, the Saints welcomed the then Brett Favre-led Vikings to the Superdome in January of 2010 for the NFC Championship game. Without letting the excitement of that game get me rambling too much, Garrett Hartley helped the team make history, kicking a 40 yard field goal in overtime to send the Saints to their first Superbowl. New Orleans has won their last three match-ups with Minnesota, that game being one of them, with the last meeting being a 42-20 Saints victory in the now retired Metrodome. Despite the recent string of success, the Saints trail the Vikings 20-10 in the all-time series. 

Pass Offense

Drew Brees got out to a pretty good start in Atlanta, but struggled finding anyone other than Jimmy Graham last week in Cleveland. While his offense ranks 6th in passing, Brees has completed 68.3% of his passes, while sitting at 5th in the NFL in passing with 570 yards. He’s thrown just three touchdowns through the first two games, well, four if you count his interception that was returned for a touchdown by the Browns last week. He’s thrown an interception, each being very costly, in both of the first two games of the season. In all seriousness, Brees was very unsettled, while facing a lot of pressure in Week 2 at Cleveland. All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham leads the Saints in receiving, as usual. He has 18 receptions for 200 yards and two touchdowns so far. Rookie Brandin Cooks has gotten off to a very good start in his first two NFL games, recording 10 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown. Marques Colston had a big Week 1, but then was held without a target last week. He sits with 5 receptions for 110 yards. Pierre Thomas continues to be a contributor as a receiver out of the backfield after leading the NFL in receptions among running backs in 2013, as he has 9 receptions for 74 yards through two weeks.

Minnesota’s pass defense has been the strength of their unit through the first two games. They are tied for 6th in the league with six sacks, with defense end Everson Griffin and defensive tackle and former Saint Tom Johnson each having two a piece. Free safety Harrison Smith is coming in to his own in Head Coach Mike Zimmer’s defense, having a sack of his own and an 81 yard interception returned for a touchdown in Week 1 against St. Louis. Cornerback Josh Robinson also has an interception for his defense and two passes defended. As a unit, Minnesota ranks 8th in the league in pass defense, giving up 194 yards a game through the air.

Despite their good start, the Vikings will have their hands full with an angry Saints offense who is virtually unstoppable in the Superdome. Sitting at 0-2, not only is this team desperate for a win, but they need to get everyone back in sync heading forward after a tough outing against Cleveland. Look for Brees to spread the ball around and get everyone involved, especially Colston after coming off of a goose egg in Week 2. I believe it’s a safe bet that you’ll see a 300 yard, three touchdown performance from Brees this week as this offense comes out firing back in their dome.

Rush Offense

There’s good news and there’s bad news on this front. The good news is the running game has been phenomenal to start the year. Ranking 5th in the NFL through two games, the Saints are averaging 156.5 yards per game so far. The bad news? Mark Ingram has been a huge part of that and he’s out indefinitely with a broken hand. Ingram was averaging 6.0 yards per carry, with his 143 yards rushing putting him 11th in the league through two games. His three touchdown rushes are the most of any player, so far. His hand injury was originally reported to hold him out for about a month, but Coach Payton sounded more optimistic when discussing the topic this week, stating that they view him as week to week. Ingram injured his hand in the first half last Sunday, but remained in the game and gained over 90 yards from scrimmage there after. There’s a lot of good to say about how he’s played, but let’s move on to the guys that will indeed be suiting up on Sunday. Khiry Robinson has played second fiddle to Ingram thus far, picking up 59 yards and a touchdown on a 4.2 yards per carry average. Pierre Thomas has added in 47 yards rushing on 4.7 yards per carry. Not to be forgotten, Brandin Cooks’ dynamic ability has been showcased thus far, as he’s been given the ball on a jet sweep three times, taking those runs for 49 yards rushing, displaying the blazing speed we’ve all heard about since draft day.

The Vikings have been more susceptible on the ground than trough the air. Ranking 16th in the league, Minnesota is allowing 110 yards per game on the ground. They had a solid outing against Zac Stacy and the Rams in Week 1, but the Patriots were very successful on the ground against them last week. Stevan Ridley ran for 101 of New England’s 150 yards rushing. Middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley leads the team in tackles with 16, while strong safety Robert Blanton sits at second with 13. Rookie outside linebacker Anthony Barr has 12 tackles of his own, third on the team. Weak-side linebacker Chad Greenway has been a bit banged up to start the year with a hand and rib injury. He has yet to practice this week and is considered questionable for Sunday’s game. Greenway has led the team in tackles for the last six years, so he is obviously a huge part of the Vikings run defense. Second year defensive tackle Shariff Floyd is another run defender who’s battling an injury. He was held out of practice yesterday with a shoulder injury, but was able to get on the field as a limited participant today.

Just how the Saints adjust to the injury to Mark Ingram is one of the biggest keys to watch this week. Thankfully, they have a bit of a favorable match-up to get adjusted. Khiry Robinson is the most likely to see a spike in carries, while Pierre Thomas figures to see a few more himself. For those die hard PT fans, don’t expect him to get the ball 12-15 times a game now, because he’ll still be the main passing downs back and the Saints rely on him in that role pretty heavily. Robinson will carry the load for the most part. Travaris Cadet could also see his way in to more playing time, as well.

Players to Watch

Drew Brees

Being his own toughest critic, Brees is surely not pleased with his performance so far this year. He was very efficient in the Week 1 loss at Atlanta, but his interception in the end-zone costed the Saints three extra points that could have won the game for them. His pick-six last week was also costly, possibly being as much as a 14 point swing, which clearly had a big effect on the outcome of the game. The two game road stretch is over and Brees and his high powered offense are finally taking the field in the Superdome, so look for him to come out firing and getting back on track.

Khiry Robinson

Robinson received his first big chance to shine in the NFL in the Wild-Card Playoff game at Philadelphia last year and he didn’t disappoint. He carried that good game over in to the Divisional Round loss to Seattle, playing well and finding his way in to the end zone. Now with Ingram out, this is his next chance to really showcase his abilities. He’ll likely shoulder the load, so his performance will certainly affect his usage from her on out, even when Ingram is back.

Kenny Stills

After staying relatively quiet in his first game back last week, Stills should be just about back to 100% from his quad injury. He showed no ill-effects from the injury last week, but the entire offense was off. Drew Brees found Stills on deep throws numerous times in the Superdome last season, so I’m looking for at least one or two deep throws between the two on Sunday. Stills has shown his ability to come down with the deep balls, so I’m thinking he has a really good chance to haul in a big one against the Vikings.

Prediction

Well, I’m 0-2 to start the year, so maybe I’ll pick Minnesota…NOT. I know, I’m not funny! Anyways, I see this as being a very lopsided match-up. The Vikings could be walking straight in to a buzz-saw and it could get ugly. Now without Adrian Peterson, which we’ll get to tomorrow, this team is less than full strength. I expect the Saints to get out to a hot start and cruise the rest of the way.

Saints – 38

Vikings – 13

Who Dat?!

Follow David Billiot Jr on Twitter @DCBilliotJr6