This exact picture is why Jimmy Graham will not be able to dunk any more. What will he do now?
Away we go. The 2014 season is set to kickoff in just a few days and what a better way to start the season then against the rival Atlanta Falcons. The build up to this season has arguably been higher than any other season in Coach Sean Payton’s time in New Orleans. You don’t have to look very far to find someone who will tell you that they believe that this is the most talented roster in Saints history. Voice of the Saints Jim Henderson has even said so himself and he has certainly seen his fair share of Saints teams. To be completely honest, I agree with that notion. Some will tell you that it’s silly to put such high expectations on a team or season, but I’d argue that facts are facts. It’s not very often that you can pair a top-5 offense with a top-5 defense, which is exactly what the Saints did last year. Sure, they ended up not even winning their division, but that’s thanks to a few last second blunders in games that they had just about wrapped up (at New England and Carolina) and two complete duds against inferior opponents (at New York Jets and St. Louis). Still, last year’s team was very talented and not only did New Orleans avoid losing any steady production, they added more talent.
The New Orleans Saints offense is coming off of yet another very productive year under Coach Payton. They finished 4th in the NFL in total offense with 399.4 yards per game and 10th in scoring with 25.9 points per game. It was another one of those seasons where the running game did not get going until very late in the season, putting the offense on the very strong shoulders of quarterback Drew Brees.
Atlanta on the other hand, struggled on the defensive side of the ball. In 2013, the Falcons finished 27th in both total defense and scoring defense, allowing 379.4 yards and 27.7 points per game. Their 4-12 record is not very surprising, considering they allowed just about four touchdowns per game. They made a few additions to their unit, but they’ll be without their heart and soul of their defense, which we’ll get to in a little bit.
The Saints and Falcons have played on a yearly basis for along time, with Atlanta leading the all-time series 47-43. That gap has closed tremendously thanks to Coach Payton, who’s 13-3 in his career against the dirty birds. I’m sure you all remember that these two squared off in Week 1 last season, with the opener being played in the Superdome. The Saints won in dramatic fashion, getting an interception in their own end zone in the waning moments to seal New Orleans’ first very victory in Week 1 match-ups against Atlanta. Saints fans would certainly love to see another thrilling game, but I’m sure many will agree that the heart pounding finish is not a complete necessity. With that being said, let’s kick off our first weekly preview of the 2014 season.
Pass Offense
Another year, another 5,000 yard passing season for Drew Brees. Last year was his fourth (third consecutive) season eclipsing the 5,000 yard mark, which is half of the total amount of times that has been done in NFL history. Dan Marino, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning have all accomplished that feat just once. Unfortunately, Manning also broke Brees’ single season passing yardage record last year. Getting back on track, Brees’ 5,162 yards in 2013 were good enough for 2nd in the league, behind only the aforementioned Manning. Brees finished 2nd behind the former Newman Greenie with 39 touchdown passes, as well. His 104.7 quarterback rating was good enough for 6th in the NFL (5th if you only count full time starters). Brees’ favorite target remained the same, as Jimmy Graham reeled in 86 receptions (13th in the NFL), 1,215 yards (15th), and a league leading 16 touchdowns. Marques Colston, or the Quiet Storm as many refer to him as, put forth another solid year with 75 receptions, 943 yards, and 5 touchdowns. 5th round rookie Kenny Stills surprised many on his way to 32 receptions, 641 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He also led the NFL with a 20.0 yards per catch average. Let’s not forget about Pierre Thomas, who led the NFL among running backs with 77 receptions, providing Brees with great check down option. The now departed Darren Sproles leaves behind 71 receptions out of the backfield of his own. One possible candidate to fill in for Sproles’ missed production could be rookie 1st round draft pick Brandin Cooks. Cooks is an explosive, dynamic weapon that will fit perfectly in Coach Payton’s offense. Joe Morgan is another face that wasn’t present in 2013, as he returns after missing the entire season with a torn ACL.
At 21st in the NFL, the Falcons’ pass defense was actually the better half of their defensive unit. They allowed 243.6 yards per game, but only sacked the quarterback 32 times, which was tied for second to last in the league. Veteran Osi Umenyiora recorded 7.5 of the team’s sacks, while no other Falcon had more than four. Strong safety William Moore led the team with three of the teams ten interceptions, while also knocking down seven passes. Rookie corner back Desmond Trufant stepped in and played very well, recording 2 interceptions and recording 17 passes defended. Trufant will step in to the role of #1 corner back this year, now that Asante Samuel has since moved on. Former Southeastern Louisiana Lion Robert Alford will step in to the #2 corner back role for Atlanta. The Falcons will also have a new face at free safety, as Dwight Lowery takes over for Thomas DeCoud who now plays alongside former Saint Roman Harper in Carolina.
Usually it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen in the first game of a season, given there isn’t much other than a few drives during preseason that you can look back on, but this is different circumstances. Drew Brees has faced this Falcons defense enough to know just about what to expect from the Saints passing attack. Brees average 317.5 yards per game in his two match-ups against Atlanta last year, so I’m looking for him to be right around that 300 yard mark. It’ll be interesting to see just how New Orleans uses Brandin Cooks in his first regular season game. He seems to have adapted to his NFL offense much quicker than what most rookie wide receivers do, but it remains to be seen just how much trust Brees puts in him right off the bat. If anything’s a given, it’s that Jimmy Graham will have a very productive day. He has torched the Falcons on numerous occasions and has scored in all but one of his six starts against them.
Rush Offense
It was another rough year for the rushing attack. New Orleans finished 25th in the league with 92.1 yards per game and 23rd with just 10 rushing touchdowns. Get this, Drew Brees actually led the team with 3 rushing touchdowns. Mark Ingram’s year got off to a rough start, injuring his foot in the Week 2 contest against the Buccaneers, which kept him off of the field until November. Upon returning, he did vastly improve his yards per carry average, eventually finishing off the year at 4.9, while rushing for 386 yards. Pierre Thomas was the team’s leading rusher with 549 yards, but struggling with a 3.7 yards per carry average. Khiry Robinson wasn’t used much until the final three games of the season, totaling 33 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown, which was good for 4.6 yards per carry through the team’s final regular season game and two playoff games.
Things couldn’t get a whole lot worse for Atlanta’s rush defense in 2013, finishing second to last in the NFL giving up a whopping 135.8 yards per game on the ground. They were missing inside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon for more than half of the season, which forced Paul Worrilow to step up from the other inside linebacker position and lead the team with 127 tackles. The Falcons will again be without Weatherspoon for an extended period of time. The linebacker ruptured his achilles tendon in off-season workouts back in June. William Moore finished 2nd on the team with 86 tackles from the safety position and will likely be called upon to help in run support again this year. Atlanta made it clear in the off-season that they wanted to get tougher up front, due to such a poor season defending the run. They signed Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai in an attempt to beef up their defensive line.
If the last few games of the 2013 season, along with the 2014 preseason, are any indication, the Saints may actually come out and have success on the ground on Sunday. Mark Ingram looks poised to lead this backfield with a very strong showing throughout training camp. Khiry Robinson will be utilized much more like he was in the playoffs last year, as part of what I expect to be a 60/40 split among carries given to the two. Pierre Thomas could work his way in for 6-8 carries a game, but I’m expecting more like 4-6 with the majority of his touches coming through the passing game. Look for a healthy Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs to help open up holes on the offensive line and get this ground attack moving. Also, watch Terron Armstead in run blocking. The kid is something special.
Players to Watch
Mark Ingram
I continue to put faith in this guy and I believe he is finally going down the path of making me (and himself) look good. His vision and cuts were tremendously improved during the second half of last year and they looked even better during the preseason. He broke a 20+ yard touchdown run and also added in a 20+ touchdown reception that technically goes in the receiving category, but started as a dump off that he did the rest with. Ingram is running with a purpose and is heading in to a contract year looking to prove to either the Saints or another team that he’s closer to being the Heisman Trophy winner, rather than a 1st round bust.
Brandin Cooks
I can’t exactly tell you what you should be looking for in terms of schemes and how the Saints use him in his first game, but he lands here simply because it will be interesting to see what they do with him. Sure, they may not want to reveal their entire bag of tricks in the first week of the season, but at the same time, Coach Payton will do whatever is necessary to win considering this is a huge game. I’m just as anxious as you to see how his playing time and usage pans out early on.
Jimmy Graham
No surprise here. I already told you how he dominates the Falcons (and their goal post) whenever he plays them and I expect nothing different on Sunday. What will be more interesting to watch is what will Graham do for a touchdown celebration when he inevitably finds his way in to the end zone?
Prediction
A year ago, I was expecting a Saints win, but we did not yet know just how good Rob Ryan’s defense would be. I was looking for a high scoring contest with New Orleans winning 38-27. They eventually defeated Atlanta 23-17, which is right around what I’ll be looking for Sunday. Nine of the last twelve meetings between these two have been decided by eight or less points. I believe this one will be even closer. Although I think the Saints are a much better team than the Falcons, I’m taking in to account that Atlanta will be prepared with this being the first game of the season and having spent a lot of time in the off-season preparing for this game. With that being said, I’m looking for the black and gold to come out on top.
Saints – 24
Falcons – 20
Who Dat?!
Follow David Billiot Jr on Twitter @DCBilliotJr6
