In the 2nd annual Bold and Not-So-Bold Predictions piece, I’ll discuss not only what could be considered some high expectations for the team, but also a few statements that don’t necessarily jump off of the page, but aren’t quite a given, either. For instance, here are a few examples from the 2013 piece…
Not-so-bold:
“-Jimmy Graham catches 100 passes and 12 touchdowns. Thoughts: There are two reasons I see this happening: health and more experience. Graham is finally back to 100% after playing through 2012 with a wrist injury. He only missed one game last season, but he played with the injured wrist for the final 10 games. As for the experience, he is entering only his fifth year of football of his life. With another full season of tape for him to look back on and another full off-season, he will only continue to get better.”
This one wasn’t really considered bold, but at the same time it couldn’t be considered a sure thing, because those types of numbers aren’t easy to obtain. Graham finished with 86 receptions, so I certainly over-shot that number, but he did have 16 touchdowns.
Bold:
“-Mark Ingram will average 4.5 yards per carry on close to 200 carries, while catching 25-30 passes. Thoughts: Health is the number one factor here. All reports have indicated that Ingram is as healthy as he’s ever been since being drafted prior to his 2011 rookie season. That probably even stretches back to before his 2010 junior season at Alabama, in which he battled a knee injury all year. I believe Payton will look to establish him as the lead back on the ground and will also get him more involved in the passing game. They certainly showed in the pre-season that they want to get him the ball out of backfield and he looked pretty good doing so.”
Here’s one that certainly would have been considered bold heading in to 2013. Ingram had still not shown much promise at that point, but was coming of a pretty good preseason which gave me faith. He finished with only 78 carries and 7 receptions, but he missed nearly two months of the season battling a foot injury. He did, though, average 4.9 yards per carry for the season, so I suppose I wasn’t completely off.
That’s just a few examples of what this article is all about. So, without further adieu, let’s get the 2014 version rolling.
Offense
Not-So-Bold
-Drew Brees has single digit interceptions. Thoughts: The Saints will make a stronger effort to run the ball this season, so Brees will feel less inclined to force the ball at times. When running the ball with success, the 3rd downs that the Saints face will be shorter and more manageable, therefore not forcing Drew to have to get the ball down field when the defense is expecting just that.
-Jimmy Graham will have over 500 yards after the catch. Thoughts: Graham had 440 yards after the catch last year and he will only continue to get stronger. From 2012 to 2013, he improved greatly with his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss once he got the ball in his hands. I expect him to improve even more after what has been described to have been a great off-season in the weight room for Graham.
-Pierre Thomas will have 85 receptions. Thoughts: Thomas led the NFL in receptions among running backs with 77 in 2013. Darren Sproles added in 71, but he is now in Philadelphia. I believe that the Saints will use Khiry Robinson more in the passing game this season, but look for Thomas to become even more of a passing downs specialist than he’s been in year’s past.
Bold
-Drew Brees will throw for 45 touchdowns. Thoughts: This is certainly bold, because even in his 13 year career, he’s only done that one time. What year was that? I’ll give you one guess. Yes, it was in 2011. Brees is most efficient when the running game is working smoothly, especially in the red zone. Defenses can’t crowd the passing lanes when there’s the strong possibility that New Orleans will attempt to run the ball down their throat to get in to the end zone. With that being the case, the linebackers will have to stay closer to the line of scrimmage and Brees will be able to find the end zone more, which will also lead to less field goals from inside the 20 yard line.
-The Saints offense will run the ball over 300 times and average 4.8 yards per carry among Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas, and Travaris Cadet. Thoughts: Coach Sean Payton would love to see the offense get back to the success they had on the ground in the 2011 season, which was arguably the best season a Payton-coached offense has had in his entire career. In ’11, the Saints running backs ran the ball 498 times and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. With a healthy Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs, along with stronger play from Jonathan Goodwin at the center position, New Orleans should have much more success attacking on the ground than they did in 2013.
-Brandin Cooks will have 50+ touches and 7 touchdowns. Thoughts: The Saints didn’t draft him to not use him. Cooks did not get much time with Brees in preseason action do to Brees only playing in less than one half, but the two dazzled in practice. Coach Payton almost definitely has tons of plays drawn up to get the ball in Cooks’ hands. The 50 touches could actually end up being an undershoot, to be honest, but I’ll temper my expectations a bit. The seven touchdowns may seem like a lot, but Kenny Stills had five in his rookie year and even though he was very good, I expect Cooks to be better.
Defense
Not-So-Bold
-The Saints defense will remain a top-8 unit. Thoughts: Last year was far from a fluke. Not that I’ve heard anyone make that claim, but I want to make it clear that this defense has tons of talent. As talented as they were last year, they very well could be better this year. Jairus Byrd is the obvious big addition, but another year of growth for guys like Cam Jordan, Junior Galette, Kenny Vaccaro, and Rafael Bush will keep this unit near the top.
-Kenny Vaccaro will finish 1st or 2nd on the team in tackles. Thoughts: Speaking of Vaccaro, this guy could end up being one of the most improved players on the team this season and he was very good a year ago. He finished third on the team with 79 tackles behind Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne. With the way that Rob Ryan will use his three safety sets, Vaccaro may find himself close to the line of scrimmage pretty often, which is where he’ll be a pain for opposing teams’ rushing attacks.
-The defense will have at least 50 sacks. Thoughts: Considering the defense recorded 49 sacks in 2013, this one certainly fits the category of “not-so-bold”. Still, I believe this team will find a way to get to the quarterback even more, mostly thanks to guys like Cam Jordan, Junior Galette, and even Akiem Hicks.
Bold
-Cam Jordan and Junior Galette will combine for 30 sacks. Thoughts: Last year I predicted that these two would combine for 20 sacks and they finished with 24.5 between the two. I’ll take it one step further this year. I cannot stress enough just how much excitement I have for the growth of these two guys. They are both still very young and far from their peak potential. They will continue to improve and cause big issues for opposing offenses.
-The defense will force 30 turnovers. Thoughts: If you’ve paid any attention during the 2014 preseason, you’ve certainly heard the coaches and players discuss making a concerted effort to force more turnovers this season. Rob Ryan was displeased with the lack of turnovers in 2013 and has made it clear that he expects his unit to be better in that area. The addition of Jairus Byrd is the number one reason that this could come to fruition, along with the solid pass rush to force opposing quarter backs in to more mistakes.
-Stanley Jean-Baptiste will finish the season as the #2 corner back. Thoughts: Rest assured, I’m making this prediction without any thought of a future injury. The corner back position did face a lot of injuries last season, but that’s not what I’m predicting. I believe that between Jean-Baptiste’s growth throughout the season and Patrick Robinson’s continued struggles, Ryan will eventually go with the young guy. The Saints want to be able to keep Corey White in slot, which is where he excels, so Jean-Baptiste is in a way next in line behind Robinson. I just haven’t seen enough out of Robinson to believe that he can not find himself getting beat week in and week out, so I’ll be looking for the rookie to take over at some point.
That’ll do it for the 2014 edition of the bold predictions. We’ll re-visit this piece after the season and see just how well (or not) I did. Keep an eye out for the offensive and defensive previews for the Atlanta game on Sunday and as always, Who Dat?!
Follow David Billiot Jr on Twitter @DCBilliotJr6
