Coach Payton and Drew Brees look to add a road playoff win to their careers.
For many, the most wonderful time of the year ended a week ago. For twelve NFL teams, it’s just beginning. The hometown New Orleans Saints proved they could bounce back from a very down year in which they finished with a 7-9 record without their head coach and recovering from Bounty Gate. Coach Sean Payton returned to the sideline for 2013 and led his Saints to an 11-5 record, sneaking in to the playoffs as the #6 seed. New Orleans barely missed out on winning the NFC South, but that crown goes to the Carolina Panthers, who thanks to a last minute comeback drive from Cam Newton to defeat our beloved Saints, sit at home this weekend and await their future opponent in the divisional round as the NFC’s #2 seed. The Saints have no one to blame, but themselves for having to go on the road for the playoffs. New Orleans lost three of their last five games to close out the year. They got flat out beat by the New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks, but the other three losses were very tough to swallow. The last minute loss to the Panthers was actually the second loss of that fashion. Back in Week 7, the Saints allowed New England to score a touchdown with :06 left on the clock to beat them in another game they had seemingly had one. Despite those two heart breakers, the one that may haunt them the most is the 27-16 loss to the very underwhelming St. Louis Rams. Nonetheless, the cards have been dealt, the chips are in the pot, and it’s now time to see if the Saints can pull off the near miracle royal flush when no one sees it coming.
The Saints offense finished the season with the 4th best offense, gaining 399.4 yards per game. Despite the high yardage numbers, they did have trouble late in the year converting those yards in to points. New Orleans finished 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 25.9. After spending twelve weeks of the season protecting the ball very well, Drew Brees and the offense started turning the ball over. It took an interception against Tampa Bay in their Week 17 blowout victory over the Buccaneers to finish the season dead even in the turnover margin. We can look at the numbers all we want, but the big question that remains is can the offense show up on the road. In their five losses, all on the road, New Orleans scored just 16.6 points per game. Sure, the defense was unbelievable, but that’s a lot to ask of your defense, especially on the road. New Orleans has never won a road playoff game and that includes an 0-3 record away from home under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. With the way they played outside of the Superdome during the regular season, saying they have a monkey on their back is an understatement. It’s more like a gorilla. That’s the challenge the Saints have, facing three outdoor stadiums to get to the Super Bowl.
The Philadelphia Eagles prevailed in a win or go home contest against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. Their 24-22 victory at AT&T Cowboys Stadium wrapped up the NFC East title in Coach Chip Kelley’s first season as an NFL head coach. The Eagles finished the season at 10-6, despite starting 1-3, then hitting the halfway mark at 3-5. Winning seven of your last eight games is certainly the way you’d like to be going in to the playoffs. Surprisingly, Philadelphia isn’t typically a very good team at home. They won their last four home games as part of that closing run to finish the season, but they had lost their first four games at Lincoln Financial Field. Actually, their Week 11 home victory over the Washington Redskins snapped a ten game home losing streak that dated back Week 6 of last year. Regardless, it seems as if they’ve gotten back on track. The Eagles defense is less than impressive, though. Philadelphia finished the season ranked 29th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 394.2 yards per game. They finished 17th in defensive scoring, giving up 27.9 points per game. That’s a testament to how well their offense has played, overcoming all of those yards and points the defense allows. Don’t discount that unit just yet, though, because with the way the Saints offense typically performs in cold road games, this match-up may be more even than you think.
Pass Offense
Thankfully the Saints had the Buccaneers on the schedule, because the offense needed some sort of warm-up game to revamp their confidence and execution. New Orleans finished the season with the 2nd best passing attack in the league, amassing 307.4 yards per game through the air. Drew Brees finished the season 2nd in passing yards and touchdowns, behind the record setting machine known as Peyton Manning. Brees passed for 5,162 yards and 39 touchdowns. His 5,162 passing yards make for the fourth time he has has surpassed the 5,000 yard mark. Amazingly, that has only been accomplished eight times in league history. Brees is the only quarterback to do it more than once. Just as the entire team did, Brees’s performance took a hit in the final five games, particularly in the three losses during that stretch. In the losses to Seattle, St. Louis, and Carolina, he turned the ball over six times, including 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles. Despite the frequent criticism, the offensive line allowed 37 sacks, which is only 23rd most in the league. Jimmy Graham continued to build upon his ever-growing reputation as the best tight end in the game, finishing with his best overall season of his young career. He led the team in all receiving categories, finishing the year with 86 receptions, 1,215 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He actually led the NFL in touchdown receptions. Marques Colston shook off a slow start and finished the year with 75 receptions, 943 yards, and 5 touchdowns. As they usually are, Saints running backs were a huge part of the passing attack. Pierre Thomas finished the season with the 2nd most receptions on the team with 77, adding in 513 yards and 3 touchdowns. Darren Sproles reeled in 71 receptions, 604 yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns of his own. 5th round rookie Kenny Stills provided a huge boost to the passing game in his first season, finishing with 32 receptions for 641 yards and 5 touchdowns. As a rookie, Stills led the NFL with 20.0 yards per catch.
As underwhelming the Philadelphia Eagles defense is, their pass defense deserves most of the blame. They finished dead last in the NFL, allowing 289.8 yards per game through the air. By comparison, the Saints allowed nearly a full 100 yards less than that. They recorded as many sacks as the Saints allowed, 37, which was 20th in the NFL. If you’re looking for a pass rusher on this team, outside linebacker Trent Cole is the guy to watch. He led the team with 8.0 sacks. Connor Barwin, playing outside linebacker on the opposite side, finished second on the team in sacks with 5.0. In the secondary, Brandon Boykin is a very talented corner back that helped the Eagles tremendously in their final eight game stretch to win the division. Boykin finished the year with 6 interceptions, tied for 2nd in the NFL. He also added 17 passes defended. Bradley Fletcher is the corner back on the other side and he finished with 2 interceptions and 15 passes defended.
On paper, the only thing that should be able to slow down the Saints passing attack is the weather. Looking at the weather report, New Orleans should have things about as favorable as possible. As of today, they’re calling for temperatures in the mid to high 20s, a 0% chance of precipitation, and low winds. Taking all of that in to account, there is no excuse for the Saints not to be able to move the ball through the air. Rookie Terron Armstead will have to continue to improve, protecting Drew Brees’s blindside. Coach Payton will likely try to implore the same sort of attack, relying largely on the passing game.
Rush Offense
As it’s been all season, there really is not much to talk about here and that’s unfortunate. It truly seems as if the Saints have just about given up on the running game and honestly, I don’t understand it. Against Carolina two weeks ago, they were gashing the Panthers, but would not stay as committed to the ground game as they should have. Again last week, the offensive line was creating huge holes against Tampa Bay, but New Orleans didn’t stick to the rushing attack until late in the second half and that was with fourth string running back Khiry Robinson. Fan favorite Pierre Thomas led the team in rushing with 549 yards, but produced just a 3.7 yards per carry average. The running back that fans typically love to hate on, Mark Ingram, led the team with a 4.9 yards per carry average. Looking at another comparison, LeSean McCoy averaged 5.1. Of course McCoy’s numbers are much, much more impressive due to consistently getting it done, but in terms of what Ingram does when the ball is in his hands, there you go. Wondering who led the team in rushing touchdowns? That would be Drew Brees with three of them. That’s pretty much what you would expect from the league’s 25th ranked rushing attack.
Philadelphia’s run defense is much better than their pass defense, but they’re still somewhat susceptible. They finished 10th in the league, giving up 104.4 yards per game on the ground. Inside linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks are the heart and soul of their rush defense, tallying up the 1st and 2nd most tackles on the team. Ryans and Kendricks finished with 127 and 106 tackles, respectively. Both added in 4.0 sacks.
The only way I see the Saints attempting to run the ball much in this game is if they have a multiple score lead in the second half. I don’t believe that will be the case, as I’m expecting a very close game. Coach Sean Payton simply isn’t going to put his trust in the hands of the rushing attack in a game of this magnitude. If you think the fans really want to see the team get that gorilla off their backs, just imagine how bad the coaches and players want it. With the season hanging in the balance Payton is going to go with is bread and butter, which isn’t the running game.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
Big games and big moments call for big players and it’s time that Brees steps up on the road in the playoffs. He’s without a doubt a first ballot Hall-of-Famer, but along with an MVP award, a road playoff win is the only other notable thing he’s missing from his resume. He has a chance to add three of them in what would be an even greater run to the Super Bowl than 2009, but it all starts with one. Brees looks to have as favorable as a match-up as possible and the weather seems like it’s going to help out the Saints. It’s there for the taking, let’s see what Brees does with it.
Jimmy Graham
As he becomes a dominant player in this league, he’s going to have to learn how to take over big games. He did just that in the 2nd half against Carolina in Week 16 and he’s going to have to do it again in these playoffs. When he’s healthy and at the top of his game, he’s truly un-coverable. It’ll be interesting to watch the type of attitude he walks on to the field with and the intensity he maintains throughout the game.
Kenny Stills
Stills has stepped up in big moments multiple times this year and not only has it helped in current situations, it’s helping for the future. With each big play Stills makes, Drew Brees becomes more and more confident and trusting in the rookie’s abilities. Marques Colston may spend most of the game lining up against talented corner back Brandon Boykin, so Stills will have the chance to beat coverage for deep plays as he has many times this season.
Prediction
I truly expect this to be a close game. I came in to this preview without a concrete expectation, but after looking at the numbers and the weather report, I think the Saints have the edge. I think Drew Brees has had enough of the road woes and I believe he puts the team on his back and leads them to a huge victory.
Saints – 27
Eagles – 24
Who Dat?!
