Stopping Marshawn Lynch could be the key in pulling off the upset for the Saints.
The match up on the defensive side of the ball for the New Orleans Saints very well could be where they win or lose when they take on the Seattle Seahawks later today. For the most part, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect on the other side. Both the Saints offense and Seahawks defense are the units that traditionally win each respective team the majority of their games, but when you have a match up on one side of the ball featuring each team’s bread and butter, it’s sometimes better to look on the other side for the difference maker. You can’t take the first meeting between these two teams as an example, considering Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball. Since the New Orleans offense and Seattle defense play well more times than not, it’s tough to predict which side will budge. In many cases, it’s neither side that wins outright. In that situation, it’s the “other” unit that usually makes the play(s) that will make the difference. That may just be the case in the battle between the Saints and the Seahawks, with the right to move on to the NFC Championship Game on the line.
New Orleans Saints – Total Defense: 4th (305.7 yards per game), Scoring: 4th (19.0 points per game)
Seattle Seahawks – Total Offense: 17th (339.0 yards per game), Scoring: T-8th (26.1 points per game)
Pass Defense
As they did all season, the Saints pass defense stepped up and played a crucial role in last week’s big victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles went in to the game having finished the season as a top-5 passing offense and had been playing even hotter than that through the second half of the year. Playing their second full game without rookie standout Kenny Vaccaro, the Saints defense held Nick Foles and the vertical passing attack of the Eagles to 195 yards through the air. Actually, if it wouldn’t have been for Keenan Lewis getting injured in the third quarter, it likely would’ve been much less than that. Once Lewis went out, Foles instantly began attacking Corey White, who had to step in to the role of covering speedster DeSean Jackson, who had been held without a catch up until Lewis’s exit. Thankfully, Lewis is listed as probable to play today. The Saints didn’t generate as much pass rush as usual, but they did get to Foles twice. Cameron Jordan picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording 1.5 of the 2 sacks.
Although your eyes will tell you that Russell Wilson has improved to be ten times better than he was last seasons (and he was pretty good as a rookie), the numbers still don’t say so. Seattle’s passing attack finished the season ranked 26th in the NFL, averaging 203.3 yards per game. That’s not that surprising, though, considering they are a team predicated on a powerful rushing attack and dominant defense. Don’t tell the Saints that, considering Wilson threw for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns in Seattle’s 34-7 whopping of New Orleans back in Week 17. Not only can he get it done with his arm, but he’s dangerous on the run as well. Wilson finished the season with 539 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown. He scrambled for 31 first downs throughout the season. Golden Tate was Wilson’s favorite target, leading the team in all receiving categories with 64 receptions, 898 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller were actually tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions with Tate, as well. The wild card of this attack could be the dangerous Percy Harvin. Harvin played in only one game this season, dealing with the recovery from a torn hip muscle sustained back in training camp. He has already confirmed that he is set to return to he line-up for today’s game.
Just like the Saints’ passing game, the Seahawks’ might not be much of a factor. With the weather forecasted to be very ugly, Seattle will have no problems putting their faith in the hands of the ground game. When they do throw the ball, three things are going to have to happen for the Saints to have a chance. First, they MUST create pressure. Wilson had all day to throw in the first meeting between these two and he made New Orleans pay. Second, when the Saints do get to Wilson, they absolutely have to take him down. You can have fun watching the athletic quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick run around all day, but you can’t truly appreciate a scrambling quarterback until you watch Russell Wilson. Considering he’s no bigger than Drew Brees, we can all relate as to how impressive his ability to sneak away from the grasps of 300 pound lineman really is. If the Saints can’t get Wilson to the ground before he takes off, they lose. Finally, Corey White must step up. He’s been abused throughout multiple games since Jabari Greer went down, proving that he’s not quite ready to start on the outside at quarterback. On a day where there won’t be a lot of passing, White can’t find himself getting beat like he has many times this season. In a game with the weather like we’ll see later today, a big pass play or two could easily be the difference maker. New Orleans may be able to recover from a 30 or 40 yard gain on a normal day, but when teams are going to be thrilled with 4 or 5 yard gains, a big one could be killer.
Rush Defense
The story of the Saints rushing defense has been steady improvement. I’d feel remorse if I didn’t point out that from opening week when all the analysts first started bashing the Saints rush defense because they gave up 77 yards on 11 carries from Steven Jackson, I told y’all not to worry. 50 of those yards had come on one run, leaving him with a 2.7 yards per carry for the rest of the day. That has been the sub-plot of the Saints’ story against the run. Big plays. Throughout the season, they’ll go majority of the game keeping opposing running backs in check, except for one or two really good runs that skew the stats. You may be asking what’s the point of looking at it that way, if teams still finished with good rushing yardage against New Orleans. Well, because when the don’t give up that one or two big runs, they can completely shut down teams’ rushing games. That leads us to last week’s game, when New Orleans did just that, didn’t allow any big runs. The result? They held LeSean McCoy, the NFL’s rushing title winner, to 77 yards on 21 carries and a 3.7 yards per carry average. McCoy averaged over 100 yards per game in 2013, including a whopping 5.1 yards per carry average. That, folks, is impressive.
How can you get by with the 26th ranked passing attack and still finish 13-3? By having the 4th ranked rushing attack and a running back like Marshawn Lynch. He and his offense averaged 136.8 yards per game this season, while Lynch finished 6th in rushing yardage with 1,257 yards and tied for 1st with 12 touchdowns. I know, I know, I don’t have to tell any one who’s a Saints fan how good this guy is. If you don’t know, turn on ESPN when they are previewing today’s game. You’ll learn very quick. The Seahawks have 100% trust in Lynch and they’ll have no problem putting the ball in his hands 25+ times with the bad weather today. The question will be, can he do better than Week 13?
When the Saints and Seahawks played earlier in the season, Lynch was held to just 45 yards rushing on 16 carries. Russell Wilson actually out-rushed him by two yards. I can say this much, I would be willing to bet nearly everything I own that if the Saints hold him to 45 yards rushing again (with the exception of an injury), they’ll win. Seattle didn’t need him to win the game on the ground last time with the way they threw the ball, but unless the weather doesn’t turn out like they’re predicting, the Seahawks won’t throw the ball like that again. Therefor, a 45 yard performance from Lynch just won’t get it done this time.
Players to Watch
Junior Galette
His name usually pops up in this section for his pass rushing abilities. While that will certainly be important, it’s his ability to play the run that will be important. Galette has typically struggled against the run in his young career, which is mostly why he doesn’t get more respect and attention on a national level. His high motor causes him to overrun a lot of plays, allowing opposing running backs to have an easier time getting to the edge if they run to his side. Galette is going to have to understand that Seattle will likely run the ball a lot today, so he’s going to have to do a better job of keeping the edge, rather than shooting straight up-field.
Curtis Lofton/David Hawthorne
These two were the heart and soul of the defense throughout the entire year and they’ll be called upon in a big way today. Not only is it crucial for them to find the holes and beat Marshawn Lynch to them, but they have to wrap him up and put him on the ground or at the very least hold him for long enough to get support. Lynch is a master at getting yards after contact, so New Orleans will have to limit those yards to prevent him from getting on a roll.
Roman Harper
It didn’t take long for Harper’s faults to be magnetized again once Kenny Vaccaro was lost for the year. There’s no hiding it, Harper is terrible in coverage. Just like Corey White, he is going to have to prevent giving up big passing plays when he’s in coverage, which he’ll certainly be at times against Seattle tight-end Zach Miller. On the flip side, he’s great in run support. I’m sure I’m getting very repetitive about Seattle running the ball a lot with the weather, but it’s going to be the case and Harper could play a big role in shutting Lynch down like last time.
Prediction
I’m still having a hard time converting all of this in to a Saints win. Again, while I truly believe they can pull it off, I don’t think they will. I can say that after another day of thought and going through this preview, my original prediction shows the largest margin of victory I see Seattle winning this one with. I’m feeling more and more like it’ll be a one score game that comes down to an offensive drive for the Saints, but only time will tell. For now, I’ll stick with what I went with yesterday, but boy do I hope I’m wrong.
Seahawks – 23
Saints – 14
Who Dat?!
