Coach Sean Payton looks to avenge his team’s loss to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks in the 2010 playoffs.
It’s finally here, folks. The battle that many circled on their calenders when the schedule came out is a day away and is packing just as much punch as anticipated. The 9-2 New Orleans Saints travel to play the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football this week in what very well could determine the #1 seed in the NFC. Both teams are a perfect 7-0 in the conference, but Monday night is just the first tough match-up for each team heading down the stretch.
The last time these two teams squared off, joy and agony were the two emotions that were brought to an extreme level for each team. Unfortunately for the Saints, they were on the wrong side of the spectrum. After winning the NFC West with a 9-7 record in 2010, the Seahawks hosted the 11-5 Saints in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. Seattle gave New Orleans everything they could handle and more, with the dagger coming with about four minutes left in the game. Up by four, Seattle had the ball at the New Orleans 33 yard line, looking to run down the clock. What happened next is something Saints fans wish could be erased from their memory. Marshawn Lynch broke eight tackles on his way to one of the greatest runs in NFL history, sealing New Orleans’ fate in the process. Although that run can never be scratched from history, the Saints have a golden opportunity to get payback on Monday night. Be prepared, though, because I can assure you that the play will be shown multiple times between the pre-game show and the game itself.
New Orleans comes in to this week with the 2nd ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 415 yards per game. They find themselves 3rd in the league, putting up 27.7 points per game. Despite the high numbers, not many believe that the Saints can provide that potential in Seattle. They are 3-2 on the road this season and have been said by many to “struggle outside of the dome”. Well, of course they don’t perform quite as well outside of the Superdome as they do during home games, but isn’t that the case for most? The secret that many fail to realize is that New Orleans has the 2nd best road record since Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in 2006. Since 2009, they have the best record away from home. If anything, this team is more prepared to win on the road this season. Why, you ask? Well, as the numbers suggest, the offense is just as good as years past. The difference is the defense. We’ll talk more about that in tomorrow’s preview, though.
As dominant as the Saints offense has been, the Seahawks defense is just as good. Heading in to Week 13 with the 2nd ranked defense, Seattle allows 293.3 yards per game. They’re only allowing 16.3 points per game, tied for 2nd best in the league. They are a ferocious, opportunistic group, that is very tough to play against when they get rolling. The Seahawks boast one of the best turnover ratios in the league at +11, doing a great job of taking the ball away, while their offense protects it.
Pass Offense
The Saints passing attack continues to perform at a high level, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 317.3 yards per game through the air. Quarterback Drew Brees heads in to this week with the 2nd most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league, with 3,647 yards and 28 touchdowns. His favorite targets continue to be tight-end Jimmy Graham and running-back Pierre Thomas. Graham comes in to Week 13 tied with Calvin Johnson for most receiving touchdowns in the NFL with 11. He’s 9th in receiving yards with 946 and 8th in receptions with 65. After being hobbled for a few games with an ankle injury, Graham got back on track with his 5 catch, 100 yard performance, including a long touchdown against the Falcons in Week 12. Thomas’ 56 receptions are 2nd on the team, proving to be a true dual-threat running-back out of the backfield. His 406 receiving yards are nearly half of his total output for the season.
Seattle’s pass defense has been at the top of it’s game for the entire year, ranking 2nd in the league giving up a mere 180.4 yards per game. Unfortunately for them, they’ve suffered two big losses between the past two weeks in their secondary. First, corner-back Brandon Browner suffered a groin injury, then was informed that he will be suspended for an entire year due to being a repeat offender of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. This week, nickle corner-back Walter Thurmond was suspended for four games for his own failure to follow the league’s substance abuse policy. The two had combined for two interceptions and sixteen passes defended this season. Seattle had signed free-agent Perrish Cox, but then only a day later they released him and decided to sign DeShawn Shead from their practice squad. Their other starters in the secondary are very good, though. Top corner-back Richard Sherman and free-safety Earl Thomas are both tied for 4th in the NFL with four interceptions each. Those two have combined for fifteen passes defended. As for their pass rush, the Seahawks rank 9th in the NFL with 33 sacks on the season. Defensive-end Michael Bennett leads them with 6.5 sacks of his own.
Brees is going to have to pick his spot against this talented Seahawks pass defense tomorrow night. Although they’re down two of their important pass defenders, the other guys are still very good. I expect the Saints to throw a lot of short to intermediate passes, which will help soften Seattle’s defense against both the run and deeper throws. Payton and Brees are both smart enough to know that they don’t have this match-up won simply due to Browner and Thurmond’s absences. As it usually is, the big question will be how will Seattle choose to try and cover Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks may choose to use to try and use players like Sherman and Thomas to take away Graham, along with top receiver Marques Colston. If that’s the case, players like Lance Moore, Kenny Stills, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles are those who will have to come up huge to help New Orleans win this game. After missing last week’s game against Atlanta, Sproles returned fully to practice all week and is listed as probable to play. Keep an eye on both he and Thomas on screen passes to try and throw the Seahawks defense off balance.
Rush Offense
The running game continues to play with much better consistency and success than early on in the season. Although they still rank 23rd in the league, New Orleans’ rushing attack has gained more than their 97.7 yards per game average more often than not in recent games. Pierre Thomas continues to provide incredible value in his carries, coming off of a game in which he averaged 7.3 yards per carry. He leads the team with 486 rushing yards and boasts a season long average of 4.2 yards per carry. Mark Ingram has played pretty well since returning from his toe injury that kept him out of five games early in the year. The third year pro is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, even after a miserable start. The offensive line gets a big boost with the return of Pro-Bowl guard Jahri Evans, who like Sproles, was not able to suit up on the short week against the Falcons.
Seattle’s run defense has not been nearly as good as their pass defense, sitting in the middle of the league at 16th and allowing 112.9 yards per game on the ground. Teams have sort of exploited their weakness as of late, churning out yards on the ground. St. Louis and Tampa Bay both gave Seattle everything they could handle on the ground in recent weeks, racking up 405 combined rushing yards in their close games with the Seahawks. The key, of course, seems to be to keep the game close against Seattle, allowing yourself the chance to stick to the ground, rather than having to play from behind and air it out. Young free-safety Earl Thomas has proven that not only is he good in pass coverage, but he’s very good in run support as well. The former Texas Longhorn leads the Seahawks with 78 tackles this season.
New Orleans’ best chance to win this game will be on the ground. The formula is written on the wall for how to attack the Seahawks defense and the Saints will have to follow it if they want to be successful. Between the opportunistic Seattle secondary, the cold weather, and the crowd, Drew Brees will not be able to beat this defense by himself. As I mentioned with the passing game, I truly believe that Coach Payton will dial up a lot of short passing plays to try and keep the Seattle linebackers off of the line of scrimmage, allowing the offensive line to open some holes for their backs to run through. Then once the Saints begin to have success on the ground and the Seahawks begin to creep up to slow it down, a play action pass down field or two will come in to the mix. Sounds simple, right? It’s much easier said than done, but the Saints offensive line has the ability to single handily win or lose this game for New Orleans.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
Keep an eye on Brees and how he chooses to attack the short-handed secondary of the Seahawks. If they choose to put all of their eggs in to the “stop Jimmy Graham” basket, while Sherman takes away his man, Brees will look to attack Shead and the other Seattle corners who have not seen the field very much. Also, Brees will have to refrain from trying to win this game by himself and be smart about throwing the ball in to coverage. When I mention this, think of the Atlanta game on the road when Brees forced bad throw after bad throw on his way to five interceptions last season. Drew needs to take what the defense gives him, protect the ball, allow his running backs to churn out yards, and allow his defense to play in good field position.
Offensive Line
No surprise here. It’s going to be about picking up tough yards on the ground and keeping 3rd down plays at a manageable distance. When the Saints do face 3rd and short situations, they HAVE to be able to convert more than they have this season. It’s been a nightmare trying to convert 3rd down and 1’s and it all starts up front. The longer New Orleans can extend their drives, the better.
Lance Moore
Moore has for the most part been a player who is kept quiet on the road, but if the Saints attack in the short passing game like I think they will, Moore will be a key factor. Kenny Stills will also be important, but in a tough game like this, I believe the trust factor between Brees and Moore will be huge. Watch for #16 to work his way open between the numbers and help the Saints move the chains.
Prediction
In all honesty, if you would’ve asked me about this game any time between when the schedule came out up until the San Francisco game, I would have had a hard time saying that my brain is saying that the Saints would win. But, after the way the Saints ran the ball against the 49ers and Falcons, along with the way the defense absolutely dominated, I truly believe New Orleans matches up well. This game could easily go either way and I don’t believe this will be the only time the two teams play this year. For this one, though, I like the Saints to prove a point up in the Northwest.
Saints – 27
Seahawks – 23
Who Dat?!
