Week 13 Preview: Saints Defense vs. Seahawks Offense

Gameday is finally here and the two best teams in the NFC, possibly the NFL, are set to square off for 1st place. The match-up of these two units provides us with both teams’ “other” side of the ball. The New Orleans Saints offense and the Seattle Seahawks defense both get the most buzz and have created each team’s identity, but it’s the other side of the ball for both organizations that have stepped up big this year. Everyone knows that Drew Brees and company can put up points and carry the Saints, but last year proved that he could use a bit of help at times. That help has arrived this season. As for Seattle, everyone knows that their defense can single handily dominate a football game, but they need support in those rare games that they allow 20 or so points. Enter, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and the rest of the Seahawk attack. While each team can win many games with their bread and butter, it’s the Saints defense and Seahawks offense that give each squad a great chance to win it all this season.

It’s no longer a secret that the New Orleans Saints defense is playing fantastic this year. It seemed like early in the season, we were all tentative to fully buy in to whether or not what we were seeing was legit. Well, after a 9-2 start and boasting the 5th best defense in the NFL, it’s legit, folks. It is indeed legit. New Orleans sits at 5th in the league in both yards and points allowed per game. They’re giving up an average of 309.9 yards per contest, while holding opponents to an average of only 17.8 points on a weekly basis. If you would’ve told just about anyone before the season that the Saints could average 20 points a game on offense and win multiple ball games, they’d have called you crazy. Of course, the offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, which in combination with the gaudy defensive numbers is the reason they sit at 9-2. Rob Ryan has worked wonders since arriving in New Orleans. So much so, that Mrs. Mae’s may rename their bar “Mr. Ryan’s”. I’m kidding, of course, but the city and most importantly the team have bought in to his ways, giving the Saints a great shot to get to New York in February. That opportunity could gain even more traction with a big win on the road tonight. 

The Seattle Seahawks found a gem when they drafted Russell Wilson in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL draft. Little did anyone know, they were drafting their starting quarterback of the future. At the time, Seattle was giving the starting quarterback job to Matt Flynn after signing him to a lucrative deal in free agency. The Flynn experiment didn’t last longer than the preseason and Wilson took over and ran with the job. Over a season and a half later, he has his Seahawk offense ranked 12th in the NFL, gaining an average of 358.5 yards per game. They are great at protecting the ball and when you combine that with their defense’s ability to take the ball away, they have one of the best turnover differentials in the NFL at a whopping +11. That margin has helped Seattle to a tie for 2nd best in the NFL in scoring, with 27.8 points per game. The key to beating the Seahawks? Well, it definitely all starts with protecting the football.

Pass Defense

It seems as if the Saints secondary has played short handed for the entire year and that, unfortunately, won’t change for the remainder of the season. After dealing with early injuries to starting strong-safety Roman Harper and nickle corner-back Patrick Robinson, an injury to Malcolm Jenkins, and recently a season ending injury to corner-back Jabari Greer, guys have continued to have to step up. They’ve done just that, leading to the league’s 5th best pass defense, allowing just 198.0 yards per game. If you ask any secondary player or coach what helps a defensive backfield the most, they’ll tell you that a great pass rush works wonders. New Orleans has just that. The Saints are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 37 sacks on the season, which has been crucial in helping mask an often injured secondary. Third year defensive-end Cameron Jordan has already out-performed his 8 sack season from 2012 with 9.5 this year, tied for 7th best in the NFL. Fellow youngsters Junior Galette and Akiem Hicks have combined to provide ten sacks of their own. It’s been quite the collective effort by this group as part of one of the greatest one year turnarounds for an entire unit that we’ve ever seen.

If there’s any weak spot on this Seattle Seahawk team, it’s their passing game. That’s not to say that they aren’t good, but they’re certainly not the best. Russell Wilson and his Seahawks rank 24th in the NFL in passing, gaining an average of 210.5 yards per contest. That’s not much, but when you have a rushing attack and defense like they do, your quarterback doesn’t have to throw much at all. Wilson is 9th in the league in completion percentage, which suggests that his efficiency is much higher than his volume of pass attempts, based off of the low yardage. He is 17th in the league with 2,362 yards passing and 8th with 19 touchdowns through the air. As I mentioned earlier, the Seahawks protect the ball well and that’s supported by only six interceptions from Wilson. Seattle has played without their biggest off-season acquisition for 10 out of their 11 games, as Percy Harvin continues to recover from a surgically repaired hip that he injured in training camp. After playing in the team’s Week 11 contest before their bye-week, Harvin is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game after suffering a set-back this week when his hip flared up. Stepping in to his place for the year has been Golden Tate. Tate has built off of what can be classified as somewhat of a breakout season in 2012 after two poor seasons following being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft. He leads Seattle in all receiving categories this year with 42 receptions for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The Saints clearly hold the advantage in this match-up, which could go a long way if they could find a way to hold a lead in the second half of this game. There is no one in the Seahawks’ passing attack that should create much of a mismatch for the Saints to cover. Seattle does a decent job of protecting the quarterback, allowing a middle of the road 29 sacks this year, but New Orleans’ pass rush seems to be gaining more steam each and every week. The Saints have proved that they can get pocket passing quarterbacks to the ground, but this week will be the first true dual-threat passer that they face this year. That statement does include Geno Smith, who’s really yet to find an identity as a quarterback in the NFL so far. Wilson is exceptional at running around in the backfield, averting potential tacklers, so the Saints will have to remain discipline in their technique to prevent him from getting away and producing a big play as he has done many times this year.

Rush Defense

Early in the season when the Saints ranked low in the league in yardage allowed on the ground, I suggested that the numbers were a bit skewed by just a couple of big runs per game. Of course, I always like to acknowledge that those runs certainly count, but New Orleans really doesn’t allow themselves to be manhandled up front consistently throughout the game. Their worst effort against the run came against the New York Jets and even that came off of about four nice runs from Chris Ivory. Since that game, the Saints have mostly disallowed those big runs and the numbers greatly suggest it. In fact, they’ve only allowed two runs of over 20 yards in their last three games following the loss to the Jets. With that, they’ve worked their way back up the ranks, allowing 111.9 yards per game on the ground, 15th best in the NFL.

It’s thanks to two aspects that Russell Wilson doesn’t have to throw much from game to game. Their defense is one big factor, with the other being their ability to pound away on the ground. Seattle ranks 3rd in the NFL, averaging 147.9 rushing yards per game. Their offensive line is great at opening holes, but the key factor is the man they like to refer to as “beast mode”. Of course, that 2010 run against the Saints in the playoffs was a big part of how he got that nickname. Lynch is 4th in the NFL with 925 yards rushing so far and tied for 2nd with 9 rushing touchdowns. As he showed in the last match-up between these two, it’s an absolute must to wrap him up and have multiple tacklers swarm to help.

This game will largely be determined on the ground for both sides. As I mentioned yesterday, the running game of the Saints will play a key role in keeping the pressure off of Drew Brees, but Seattle is not used to having to rely on their passing attack to win games for them. It will be key for them to be able to do what they do best, with the Saints providing a very tough match-up for them with their heavy pass rush and good coverage.

Players to Watch

Akiem Hicks

Hicks has been playing out of his mind lately. He’s coming off of a fantastic game in which he gave Matt Ryan nightmares. The thing about Hicks, though, is that he’s quietly pretty good in run defense, as well. He’s tied for 4th on the team in tackles, so whether it be in pass rush or run defense, he’s shown the ability to get off of his block. Hicks, along with Cam Jordan, Brodrick Bunkley, and John Jenkins, are the first line of defense against Marshawn Lynch, facing the difficult task of slowing the running-back down to allow the linebackers and safeties get there in support.

Curtis Lofton/David Hawthorne

Building off of Hicks and the rest of the defensive line’s importance, these two will have to be at the top of their game when it comes to tackling. They’ve both been fantastic in run support, with five tackles for loss each. Even if they don’t get to the runner in the backfield, they’ve consistently met the ball carrier near or just past the line of scrimmage, usually stopping him dead in his tracks. Whether it be with the assistance of a lineman or one-on-one, these two in the middle of the field are a huge factor in slowing Lynch down.

Corey White

The Seahawks likely wont pass a whole lot, as usual, but when they do, White is going to have to show up. Seattle is too good to have the same thing happen that happened to him last week against the Falcons. White was beat repeatedly in the first half, allowing Atlanta to sustain long drives. Seattle is much more likely to convert those drives in to touchdowns, rather than field goals such as the Falcons did in Week 12. When Wilson does drop back to pass, White will have to provide good coverage and prove that he is not a liability.

Prediction

Saints – 27

Seahawks – 23

Who Dat?!